Is 18 a Magic Number? - Part 4

As we have been posting, UCLA authorities will soon have to make a decision about what happens on January 18 when the current move at UCLA to online education expires.

There is a complication now that was not present in the past. As you can see from the chart below, the rate of transmission is very high, pushing up the new cases in LA County. On the other hand, the death rate is not soaring. See below.

It's true that the death rate would be expected to lag the case rate. But in the surge a year ago, both rose quickly. So, as news reports have been suggesting, it appears that more people test positive from the current variants, but fewer get seriously ill. Still, if we return to in-person instruction on January 18, there will be lots of positive tests and quarantining going on which will create problems. If students are quarantining, they will miss in-person instruction. If faculty are quarantining, they won't be able to do in-person instruction.

Note that a solution of some kind of hybrid instruction sounds easy. But it adds substantial complication. Will all classrooms be set up with cameras and recording devices? Who will activate these devices and track that they are functioning properly during an ongoing class. Not all classes have TAs for such activity. And TAs in those classes that do have them may themselves be quarantining.

There is a need for some quick decision-making. And it will have to be based on incomplete information such as shown above.