Is 18 a Magic Number? - Part 2

We noted in yesterday's posting that UCLA and the various UC campuses - Davis being the exception - are treating January 18 as the magic date by which time we will have enough knowledge about the Omicron situation to decide whether or not to continue remote instruction.

So far, however, what has accumulated has been conflicting information for a decision, e.g., Omicron is more transmissible [bad] but maybe (or maybe not) less severe [good].

Below you can see the latest problem that has arisen. From Politico yesterday:*

So maybe the tests that we relied on to keep instruction largely in-person during the fall are henceforth going to be rendered less effective. (Or maybe not.) Back in March 2020, instructors were given about a 24-hour notice to switch to remote instruction. While there may have been some justification at that time for the chaotic switch, presumably this time we are not going to wait until January 16 or 17 to determine what happens on January 18. In short, this time we are presumably talking about maybe a week or a week and a half from today in which sufficient information is deemed available to decide what to do on the 18th. Right now, however, the case trend in LA County is going in the wrong direction:

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*https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2021/12/28/fda-antigen-tests-reduced-sensitivity-omicron-526217.