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Thursday, October 21, 2021

Just a reminder about "surplus"

The screengrab from the Sacramento Bee shown here tells you something, but - as your truly hopes blog readers will know - we are in fact this year pulling down reserves (running a deficit). Words such as surplus and deficit in the mouths of California political figures mean whatever those figures want. The simple idea that surplus = revenue > spending and deficit means the opposite goes out the window in California budget-speak. (Based on the governor's own figures, the deficit this year in the general fund is about $14-15 billion, i.e., we are pulling down reserves by that magnitude.) We are able to run such deficits partly because Jerry Brown accumulated a big reserve earlier and partly because at the start of the pandemic, it was assumed that revenues would fall dramatically and so spending was initially cut. 

Revenue didn't fall, mainly because higher earners who were least affected by the pandemic, pay much of state revenue through the income tax. And the federal government provided various payments to the state. As a result, reserves will be higher than they were before the pandemic, even with this year's deficit.

What you can say from the headline is that the governor is not going to be harsh regarding the budget for next year, which happens to be a gubernatorial election year. 

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