What the UCLA Anderson Forecast and Other Developments Indirectly Say About the UC Budget

The UCLA Anderson Forecast held its March conference via Zoom yesterday. Generally, the Forecast was similar to its December predictions but perhaps a bit more optimistic about the pace of recovery in California. A summary can be found at:

https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/news-and-events/ucla-anderson-forecast-predicts-near-record-growth-as-economy-recovers

Although the Forecast did not explicitly reference the UC budget, as the image above indicates, it did point to the fact that general fund revenues to the state have been running ahead of last fiscal year. (Revenues originally fell in the early days of the coronavirus crisis but then more than recovered.) In short, recovery plus unexpected revenue should translate into good news for the UC budget as the legislature works on it. The state will also now receive more aid from the new federal legislation enacted under the Biden administration.

While all of this economic news is coming in, we also have the political reality of the recall election that seems likely to occur. Governor Newsom until recently has shrugged off reporters' questions about the recall at his many news conferences. When asked in late January whether his actions relaxing lockdown rules had anything to do with the possible recall, Newsom called the idea "nonsense," adding in some of the jargon he likes:

or direct to: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQFy5diti_A

But in his State of the State address on Wednesday, he indirectly referenced the recall:

or direct to: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuGeTNtSkWg

What does all this have to do with the state budget? Plenty, and it ain't complicated. A governor facing a recall and blessed with more revenue than expected is more likely to be generous when it comes to the UC budget when we get to the May Revise. The legislature, too, is likely to be more generous. Whether or not anyone will say this at the upcoming Regents meeting is unclear. But you read it here.