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Friday, March 19, 2021

Looking Back at the California Labor Market


The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has provided a backwards look at what happened to the California labor market in 2020, this time using "job openings," essentially vacancies. February 2020 was the peak in terms of available jobs. The lockdown began in mid-March and accelerated. Note that the civil disturbances occurred at the trough, May and June, if one is looking for an economic interpretation beyond the immediate trigger. There is a pickup in job availability into the fall, but by December tightened lockdown rules caused another decline. (Figures refer to the last business day of the month.)


You can also see both the connection and disconnect to the state budget which was put together at the trough when things reasonably suggested that revenues would be dropping sharply. So, there were various budgetary cutbacks reflecting that expectation. But, as it turned out, the actual budget results so far have been much better in terms of revenue, thanks to the state's dependence on higher income taxpayers who were least affected by the lockdown/downturn, the resilience of financial markets (whose returns disproportionately affect higher income taxpayers), and the infusion of federal aid, most recently under Biden.

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