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Thursday, November 19, 2020

California Stall Continues



At the national level, whether seasonally adjusted or unadjusted, new weekly unemployment claims rose somewhat over the week ending November 14 relative to the prior week. In California, there was little change over that period, as the chart above indicates.


Our post yesterday about the surprisingly strong state budget outlook may seem inconsistent with a stalled state economy. Is there a reconciliation between the two observations? Part of the story is that the budget for this year was made on conservative assumption on revenue and spending. Another part is that income tax revenue - a major part of the state budget - is heavily based on upper income taxpayers who were generally less affected by the downturn than the median earner.

As always, the latest new weekly claims data are available at https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf.

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