Greater than Forecast

We already noted in a prior post that the state controller found that general fund revenue for the first quarter of this fiscal year (2020-21) ran ahead of forecast values by over $7 billion. Note much of the extra revenue came from the personal income tax. That tax's due date was delayed until July. Of course, the forecast was adjusted to that circumstance. Nonetheless, the income tax was largely based on pre-coronavirus income, mainly calendar year 2019.

We have also noted that the estimates of the Dept. of Finance (DOF) do not necessarily agree with those of the controller. Finance says that discrepancy is because agencies lag in reporting incoming revenue to the controller. That explanation, however, is not entirely satisfactory when we are talking about the difference between actual and forecast values because presumably the controller's forecast should take the delay into account.

In any event, both the controller's figures and DOF's figures for the first quarter are shown on the able below. Both agree that more money was received than expected. Both agree that the difference was largely due to income tax receipts. But the DOF has a larger discrepancy than does the controller, with that gap largely due to different sales tax forecasts. Note that the story about delayed reporting doesn't quite jibe with the fact that DOF had lower expectations for sales tax receipts than the controller. All of this suggests deficiencies in state accounting that someone ought to be looking at. 

Still, it's better that more money has come in than expected according to both sources.

General Fund Revenue: July-Sept. 2020 ($Billions)

Agency       Source     Actual     Forecast     Difference

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DOF          Income      $38.9        $32.3        +$6.7

Controller   Income      $39.1        $32.5        +$6.7

DOF          Sales        $6.7         $5.1        +$1.6

Controller   Sales        $6.7         $6.6        +$0.1 

DOF          Corp.        $6.9         $6.5        +$0.3

Controller   Corp.        $6.9         $6.5        +$0.4

DOF          All         $54.1        $45.4        +$8.7

Controller   All         $54.4        $47.1        +$7.2

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Note: "All" includes other taxes and sources of revenue apart from income, sales, and corporation taxes.

Source: http://www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Economics/Economic_and_Revenue_Updates/documents/2020/Oct-20.pdf and https://sco.ca.gov/Files-ARD/CASH/September2020StatementofGeneralFundCashReceiptsandDisbursements.pdf