UCLA Forecast: Recovery Over Two Years (Maybe)

The LA Times summarizes today's UCLA Anderson forecast (via Zoom):

California’s economy began to bounce back this summer thanks to an infusion of federal jobless benefits and business loans along with the reopening of some workplaces, but a full recovery from the coronavirus downturn will take more than two years, UCLA economists predict. The UCLA Anderson quarterly forecast released Wednesday suggested California payrolls will drop 7.2% this year to 16 million jobs, a loss of some 1.5 million since the COVID-19 pandemic hit. They are expected to climb back slowly, by just 1.3% next year and 3.5% in 2022. 

The Golden State’s unemployment rate, which was 3.9% in February, will average 10.8% this year, then fall to 8.6% next year and 6.6% in 2022, the forecast calculated. Nonetheless, “the news is not all bad,” economist Leila Bengali wrote in the report, noting that some industries are faring far better than others. A precipitous drop in travelers has hammered California’s leisure and hospitality sector, where payrolls are projected to fall 25% this year, but “the housing market is an area where we project particular strength and a quick recovery to pre-recession levels.”...

Full story at https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-09-30/california-economy-ucla-anderson-forecast. The entire Forecast is available on YouTube. Click below or go directly to: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=45CWNWshVQo

Note: Towards the end, there is an interesting discussion about the impact of tech firms as they spread eastward from the Westside of LA and into South LA on the local population, gentrification, jobs, etc. Go to 3:06:00.