Stalling, but with some indication of good news

The latest weekly new claims for unemployment insurance data are out for the week ending August 29 and seem to indicate a stall. The U.S. Dept. of Labor has switched to an alternative method of seasonal adjustment as of September which makes weekly comparisons difficult. However, as can be seen below, absent seasonal adjustment, the numbers at the U.S. level are basically flat. The insured unemployment rate - which lags by one week - did fall, however. So those dropping out of the insured unemployment pool are exceeding those falling into it - which should be a Good Thing assuming they are getting jobs.

The story was much the same for California as can be seen below. However, California continues to account for a disproportionate roughly one fifth of those receiving unemployment benefits.

The latest new claims release is at https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf. There is a link in that release to the database used to create the California chart above. We should get another indicator - the national unemployment data - tomorrow, although those data go back to mid-August.