Stall Warning

The latest data on new weekly claims for unemployment insurance suggest a stall in the recovery. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, 1.3 million people filed new claims last week, essentially the same number as the week before. Without adjustment, the number for last week was 1.5 million, up from 1.4 million a week earlier.

Estimates of the total number of folks actually receiving benefits lag by a week. For the week ending July 4th, there was an uptick in recipients (so more people entered the system than left). Seasonally-adjusted data show a decrease. Of course, the data used for seasonal adjustment are based on normal historical trends and we are not in a normal period because of the coronavirus crisis. In any event, those hoping for a V-shaped recovery - this particular set of indicators suggest - are in for a disappointment. We will see as the summer quarter progresses.

[Click on image to clarify and enlarge.]

Latest data: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf.