End of the Beginning - Part 8

Two labor market indicators appeared today which continue to suggest a bottoming out of the coronavirus-induced recession.

New claims for unemployment insurance were 1.4 million on a seasonally-adjusted or an unadjusted basis for last week. As we have noted in past postings, these are very high numbers, although declining. Total numbers receiving unemployment have generally been falling or flat (although these numbers lag by one week). That fact suggests that people are exiting receiving unemployment insurance (presumably getting jobs) at least as fast as new people are becoming unemployed. As in prior weeks, California has a disproportionate share of individuals receiving unemployment benefits. See below for the national trends:

[Click on image to clarify.]

Because of the upcoming July 4th holiday, the official unemployment rate for June was release along with data on nonfarm payroll employment. Both measures - although distorted because the collection and estimation methodology was not designed for the current situation - also suggest a bottoming out.

[Click on image to clarify.]

The latest data on new claims and the unemployment and nonfarm payroll jobs surveys are at:
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf and
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf.