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Thursday, June 25, 2020

End of the Beginning - Part 7

Every Thursday, the data on new claims for unemployment insurance come out. And for the last few weeks, they tell a story of a bottoming out of the coronavirus economic crisis. New claims for the week ending June 20 were 1.5 million seasonally-adjusted and 1.3 million without adjustment. These remain very large numbers but on a downward trend. However, more telling is that the total number receiving unemployment insurance is declining, despite the large numbers entering the pool. That decline means that people in the pool are leaving it and finding jobs. And more are exiting the pool than entering, causing the pool to shrink.

[Click on image to enlarge and clarify.]

California continues to be over-represented in the pool receiving unemployment insurance.

The latest data on new claims are always at https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf.

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