End of the Beginning - Part 5

We continue noting that there are signs from the labor market that the economy has bottomed out, but in a depressed state. The latest weekly new claims for unemployment insurance for the US (week ending June 13) are 1.5 million seasonally-adjusted and 1.4 million unadjusted.

These figures remain extraordinarily high. But the total number of those receiving UI benefits in recent weeks has fallen and then largely stabilized. (Those totals lag one week.) So although we are dumping new people into unemployment in large numbers each week, a roughly equivalent number is apparently finding new jobs and moving off the rolls.

California, however, remains overrepresented in the totals of those receiving UI benefits. And, of course, much depends on the course of the coronavirus. New cases appear to be increasing. Political leaders - including those in California from the governor on down - appear to be willing to lower restrictions and allow more activities, regardless of current case trends. We don't know what the reaction would be to a more pronounced increase, a second wave, etc.

[Click on image to enlarge and clarify.]

Source of latest data: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf