End of the Beginning - Part 4

We have been noting that there are signs that the macroeconomy is bottoming out and - maybe - starting a recovery. Another government survey, this one of separation and hiring rates suggests that the large-scale layoffs due to the shutdown mainly occurred in March and began to decline in April. See the chart below from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).* 

The condition of the economy will reflect itself in the state budget - and ultimately the UC budget - in obvious ways. Exactly what the pace of the recovery may be is much debated. It will partly depend on the course of the coronavirus, particularly now that the large demonstrations of recent days have inadvertently created a medical experiment as to how infectious the virus may be. Political decisions on further "stimulus" by Congress - particularly as they relate to state and local governments - may also play a role.

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*https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf. Note that this labor market survey, like others that have been put out recently, was not designed to be collected under current circumstances and may be distorted (as explained in the release). Dark conspiracy theories about such data that have been floating around the web should be ignored.