End of the Beginning?

The latest data on new weekly claims for unemployment insurance are in through the week ending May 25th. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, new claims totaled 2.1 million and 1.9 million without adjustment. Still, these incredibly large numbers have been heading down. Moreover, the cumulative number being processed - again, astonishingly high -  through the prior week has fallen, which suggests that some of the unemployed have found work (maybe). California represents about its proportionate share of the unemployed by this measure.

[Click on image to clarify.]

There are lots of caveats. The data are based on administrative case processing. There are still news reports of people unable to get cases filed. Data on case processing are really for management purposes and not labor-market analysis. But as Churchill said, we are perhaps at the end of the beginning. Of course, much depends on the course of the coronavirus. Will the current loosening up of rules lead to a new spike in cases and another retrenchment? Will there be a second wave? Will there be a vaccine and when? Etc., etc., etc.

The latest new claims release is always at https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf.