How bad is it? Bad, really bad - Part 11

Another weekly report on new claims for unemployment insurance with off-the-chart data has arrived. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, the new claims were 4.4 million, down from 5.2 million. The seasonally-adjusted figure for last week was 4.3 million. California accounted for 12.1% last week and 12.5% the week before.

We won't have an April unemployment rate until early May and it will reflect the situation in mid-April. There are some technical problems creeping into the gathering of the official unemployment rate. The survey on which it is based is a complicated rotating sample in which new entrants into the survey are normally recruited through in-person contacts. In addition, to be counted as unemployed, you have to cite some activity showing work-seeking activity or indicate you are on temporary layoff. Many of the newly displaced may not be seeking work given the odd circumstances and depressed labor market. How many will consider themselves temporarily laid off is unclear.

In any event, the new claims continue to indicate a collapsing economy (and tax base for the state and thus for UC).

The latest new claims news release is always at https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf.