How bad is it? Bad, really bad - Part 3

Click on image above to enlarge and clarify.

We previously noted that our first indicator of what was happening in the labor market - new claims for unemployment insurance (a proxy for layoffs) for last week - would be off the chart.* We thought the national new claims - based on advance California data - might be on the order of 2.4 million (without seasonal adjustment). In fact, the latest number is 2.9 million (3.3 million seasonally-adjusted).

Our underestimate was due to the fact that California accounted last week for only 6.4% of national new claims. (California is roughly 12% of the workforce.) The previous week, California accounted for over one fifth of new claims. Essentially, the data tell us that the coronavirus-related layoff have spread across the country which is now following the California pattern with a lag.

As we have noted, the economic decline the chart above represents is bound to affect the state budget adversely (and, therefore, the UC budget).

Below are links to recent coronavirus-related announcements:
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Gov. Newsom: 3-25-2020 (starts at about minute 3)

or direct to:
https://archive.org/details/newsom3252020

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Gov. Newsom: 3-24-2020 (starts at minute 6:05)

or direct to:
https://archive.org/details/newsom3242020
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Gov. Newsom: 3-19-2020 (starts at about minute 1:25)

or direct to:
https://archive.org/details/newsomshutdown31920
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*http://uclafacultyassociation.blogspot.com/2020/03/how-bad-is-it-bad-really-bad.html