...(T)he number of students graduating from California high schools is forecast to top out in six years. And that demographic trend already has hit the nation’s northeastern states, where birthrates began declining years ago and enrollment has dropped even at elite institutions, such as Princeton University and MIT.
“What the California system is experiencing this year is just a taste of some of the challenges it will experience in a decade or so,” said Nathan D. Grawe, a Carleton College professor of economics and social sciences, and author of “Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education.”...
Grawe says UC will have less of a reason to worry about a drop-off in enrollment than other college systems in California. Rising education levels among parents and a growing Asian American population will provide buffers for highly selective universities, he said.
Still, he predicts that the number of California students who attend college will drop by 15% overall by 2029. The prediction is a reduction of 17% for those who attend community colleges, but only 6% for those who attend the nation’s top 50 universities, including UCLA, Berkeley, Santa Barbara, Irvine, Davis and San Diego.
“The landscape is more forgiving for selective institutions,” Grawe said.
But the potential for a lengthy decline in enrollment, following similar trends across the U.S., has raised questions about the bevy of construction projects under consideration on UC campuses to accommodate the record enrollment of the last few years. UC and California State University are exploring putting a measure on the 2020 ballot for an $8-billion construction bond. Gov. Gavin Newsom also has proposed funding a study on building a new Cal State campus, possibly in Stockton.
Nathan Brostrom, UC’s chief financial officer, said much of the money the system is seeking is needed to repair existing buildings and for upgrades for earthquake safety. UC’s growth has strained campuses in need of more classrooms, teaching labs and student housing...
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