Latest Cash Report

The latest state controller's cash report for the first five months of the 2015-16 fiscal year is out. It shows more cash has arrived as revenue than was forecast back when the budget was enacted. That's the good news. It is also not entirely a surprise since Gov. Brown tends to push the legislature to use conservative revenue forecasts in order to hold back spending.

When you look at the three big taxes, however, it appears that only the highly progressive personal income tax is running ahead of forecast values. The sales tax and the corporate tax are below forecast levels. That result suggests that good things are happening to incomes of those at the top of the income distribution (whose payments drive the income tax) but not so much for the rest. Note that even in a period when the stock market has not been shooting up, it is possible for capital gains revenue to come in based on earlier appreciation.

You can find the cash report at http://sco.ca.gov/Files-ARD/CASH/05_November_2015.pdf