We continue to monitor new weekly California claims for unemployment insurance for signs of the much-rumored coming recession. But the trend in such claims remains flat: little bumps up and down but, in the end, new claims remain at pre-pandemic boom levels. See the chart below. What is true for California is also true at the national level.Despite concerns about Fed policy and rising interest rates, bank failures, tech layoffs, and stalled debt ceiling negotiations, the overall labor market - at least by this measure - has not been affected.
As always, the latest new claims data are at https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf.
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