The state controller's cash report for July is out. July is the first month of the 2018-19 fiscal year. The good news is that total revenues are up 8.9% from the same month last year. The bad news is that total revenues a 4.3% of what was forecast when the 2018-19 state budget was being enacted. Also not good is that the sales tax component - which is a proxy for consumption activity - is down from both the forecast levels and from last year. Is this an indication of some kind of slowdown? Does it instead relate to some one-off event such as wild fires?
Finally, with only one month's observation, what we have is most likely noise, unless the pattern persists.