Thursday, June 14, 2018


Yours truly likes to point to the UCLA Anderson Forecast - which was presented yesterday - for two reasons. 1) The economic news is of interest, and 2) It serves as a reminder that conference facilities can be had around campus apart from the UCLA Grand Hotel, a low-priority project nonetheless built at a time the university was budget-stressed. (The Forecast was presented in the Korn Auditorium of the Anderson School.)

Here is the official summary of the California portion of the Forecast (which is based on a gradually slowing economy - but no recession, albeit with some risks seen as stemming from international developments). It's a scenario that suggests no state budget crisis is likely to develop, although that matter was not discussed.

The California report

California employment hit another record high in April 2018. As the economy has been expanding as expected, the current forecast has not changed much since last quarter’s forecast, released in March 2018. Full employment has been less of a constraint on this growth with recent increases in the labor force.
It is anticipated that California’s average unemployment rate will remain higher than the U.S. rate and be at 4.3 percent in 2020, a consequence of a younger and more entrepreneurial workforce.
The forecast for total employment growth for the current year and the next two years is 1.7 percent, 1.8 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively, with payrolls growing at about the same rate. Real personal income growth is forecast to be 2.5 percent, 3.6 percent and 2.9 percent in 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively.
“Affordable housing in California continues to be the subject of considerable discussion,” writes UCLA Anderson Forecast director Jerry Nickelsburg. (He examined) the complex ties among the state’s employment growth, the attractiveness of California and the building, zoning and environmental restrictions affecting housing supply. Although the forecast calls for a continued rise in housing prices, “the impact on economic growth is not as great as one might expect,” he writes.
There was even a silent protest aimed at panelist and State Senator Scott Wiener who had sponsored (and later dropped for this year) a bill that would have overridden some local zoning/growth controls. You can see the protesters' banner in the photo on the upper left charging Wiener was beholden to real estate interests.

[Click on the pictures to enlarge.]

No comments: