Saturday, October 11, 2014
Cash Through September
The good news is that revenues are running about half a billion above estimates contained in the budget when it was passed last June. But the bad news is that the places where we are ahead are the most volatile tax sources: the corporate tax and the personal income tax (which reflects capital gains). The revenue from the sales tax - which is arguably a better measure of the actual economic trends - is below the budget estimate and below the level of last year at this time.
Obviously, three months does not make a year on either the good news or the bad news side. But if you are looking for something to fret about this weekend, you can consider our prior postings that our budget reserves are low, and will be whether or not the governor's "rainy day" fund is passed by the voters or not. A downward shock to the economy could easily shove us back into crisis.
The cash report through Sept. is at: http://www.sco.ca.gov/Files-ARD/CASH/fy1415_october.pdf